Lord Mervyn King served as the governor of the Bank of England from 2003 to 2013. His new book, Radical Uncertainty Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers, co-authored with economist John Kay, discusses the failure of policymakers to properly account for the unknown, and how, in their zeal to come up with definitive answers to unanswerable questions, they create a sense of false certainty that prevents us from seeing the world as it really is. He took the time to talk to The Trusted Professional about his book, as well as about current developments in an increasingly chaotic economy. The Q&A has been edited for length and clarity.

Between market events such as the inversion of the yield curve on U.S. Treasury bonds and geopolitical risks such as the trade war with China, concerns that the country is headed for a recession have been growing steadily over the past few months. For instance, in March, a survey of 53 professional economic forecasters, conducted by the National Association for Business Economics, placed the odds of a recession sometime before the end of 2020 at 35 percent; by June, the same survey found that the estimated chances had risen to 60 percent. These signals have led some CPAs to begin preparing for a downturn, while others remain confident that they won’t be overly affected, given the differing levels of exposure to macroeconomic risk factors.