Dana Telsey, CEO and chief research officer at Telsey Advisory Group, who spoke at the Foundation for Accounting Education's Broker-Dealer Conference Wednesday, predicted that 2021 will be a year of booming profits, as pent-up demand from the previous year is finally unleashed.

Telsey noted that all the spending on weddings, graduation and other gatherings that did not happen in 2020 will start happening in 2021, which in turn will have knock-on effects on other sectors. Cosmetics is one example; Telsey said that people will want to look good for all those events they're now going to, which is also why she predicted an uptick in apparel beyond sweatpants and hoodies. Travel will similarly pick up because people will be going to more events, or, at the very least, taking more vacations. As more people get vaccinated, in reaction to a year of lockdowns and restrictions, they will begin spending to recapture the experiences they lost in the pandemic, herself included.

"I can't wait to get out there and see people. .. One of the things we're all missing, because of all the Zooms, is the experience, whether meetings or occasions. Zoom doesn't make memories, experiences make memories," she said.

This will be helped by the extra savings that many people accumulated last year through stimulus checks and tax refunds. (A recent report noted that people are mostly saving their government stimulus money, and what spending is taking place is generally to either pay down debt or buy essentials.)

A similar effect can be seen in the shift to remote work. Since, for many, the home is now a place where they live, work and entertain, demand for home furnishings has been, and will remain, high. This encompasses not only items such as home office equipment but even decorations, as people are starting to have people over again. This can be seen in increased sales at stores like Home Depot or Lowe's.

But it would be folly to think the economy will be just the way it was pre-pandemic. Telsey said that many of the adaptations that companies made to survive last year will remain to help them thrive this year, and these are unlikely to go away anytime soon. One of the most glaring examples is the rise in e-commerce. She noted that, prior to the pandemic, her research had projected a 25 percent penetration by 2025. She now believes it will be 29 percent by that time, and that's just the average. Certain sectors, like apparel, will be even higher.

"Every company I spoke to, they made many new customers, as digital was the only channel available," she said, noting that the focus now is on retaining them. "How do you make them a multichannel consumer?"

But even in the physical world, she believes that retailers have changed for the long term. The major downsizing they underwent last year taught companies that it's better to have a smaller number of strong locations than a larger numbers of mediocre ones, especially if there are a lot of online customers as well. Flagship stores are on their way out, too, as the marketing advantage of having a store in a particular location (e.g. Fifth Avenue) has faded with the rise of e-commerce. New practices, such as contactless payments and curbside pickup will likely also remain.

But Telsey noted that the commerce sector is also facing challenges from two main areas: logistics and labor. On the logistics side, the rise in e-commerce has meant a subsequent rise in shipping demand, which in turn has come to stress ports and delay deliveries. She pointed out that it can take days for crews to empty an entire cargo ship. Right now, she said, the country is faced with major bottlenecks in this area. Not helping matters is the labor challenge. Ports themselves are having trouble finding enough workers, which has further slow shipping.

This, she said, is an issue across the economy. Telsey said she herself has seen McDonald's in Manhattan now offering wages of $16 or even $17 an hour to try and entice people to work, dashing past even the recent $15 minimum wage that had caused such consternation in the business community before. She added  that restaurants are also contending with a rise in commodity prices, such as chicken, which has served to increase costs.

Looking to just this year, she said that the first quarter was driven mainly by stimulus money as the main question became how to reopen safely. The second quarter, she said, is being driven by the vaccine. As more people get vaccinated, they have started to go to more gatherings and travel to more places, especially since Mother's Day is this Sunday, Memorial Day is at the end of the month and Father's Day is in June. On top of this, there are weddings and graduations, which can now be celebrated.

The third quarter, she said, will be driven by children, namely the ones going to camp in the summer and back to school in the fall. The school year, especially, will cause a big jump in consumer spending as people, once more, buy new clothes and school supplies. This will also be the time when a lot of people start returning to the office (though she said what is likely to emerge will be a hybrid model of some days spent telecommuting and other days spent in the office), which will spark similar purchases. Telsey added that we will likely see a lot more domestic travel around this time too, as people will want to go on summer trips.

The fourth quarter will, as it usually is, be driven by the holiday season, but one much more vibrant than last year's, given the pent up demand, extra savings, and reopened stores.

Overall, she said, spending last year was driven by needs: toilet paper, hand sanitizer, cleaning supplies, gloves.

"This year, it is a wants-based focus," she said. "Wants of refreshing wardrobes, wants of refreshing our cosmetics cabinets, wants of going out on vacation. I think that's what's emerging so far in 2021."