CFOs Getting Nervous as Almost Half Believe Recession Will Come in 2019

Chris Gaetano
Published Date:
Dec 13, 2018

The nation's CFOs see storm clouds gathering on the horizon, as a recent survey has found that nearly half anticipate that an economic recession will start in 2019, and even if that's not the case, the vast majority believe it will come in 2020, according to The survey, conducted by Duke University, drew from 500 CFOs, including 226 from North America. Of those, 49 percent believe that the country will see the start of an economic recession by the end of next year, and a full 82 percent of them think that, if not then, it will start by the end of the following year. 

The time frame matches what others have been predicting as well. Members of the National Association of Business Economics pegged the start of the next recession at 2020, though they are divided between whether it will happen at the end of that year or by the end of the second quarter. JPMorgan Chase also named 2020 as the year the country will hit another recession, using a model that predicted a 20 percent decline in stock value, a bond yield premium of 1.15 percent, a 35 percent drop in energy prices, a 29 percent reduction in base metals, a 2.79 percent widening spread on emerging-nation government debt, a 48 percent slide in emerging-market stocks and a 14.4 percent drop in emerging currencies. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio recently also sounded the alarm, saying that he sees significant problems coming up in the next two or three years, which would put his timing roughly in line with JPMorgan Chase's. Meanwhile, investors were recently rattled by the yield curve for treasury bonds inverting, something that had preceded the last seven recessions. 

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