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January 2010 » Variance Analysis Using Throughput...
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David Bukovinsky, PhD, CPA (inactive), and John C. Talbott, PhD, CMA
In September 2007, Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe outlined plans to sell 10.4 million vehicles globally in 2009. The total would be an 11.3% increase from the 9.34 million vehicles Toyota planned to sell in 2007 and would eclipse GM's auto industry record of 9.55 million vehicles sold in 1978. Given the current state of the world economy, that forecast seems very wide of the mark. Worldwide automobile sales dropped precipitously in 2008 as consumer credit dried up, and a turnaround is not expected anytime soon. Toyota's North American sales fell 37% in 2008. In response to these events, Toyota announced an 11-day halt to production at its Japanese plants. The situation did not improve in the first quarter of 2009. No visionary can predict what will happen in the auto industry—or any other industry—over the next few years. Few would have predicted the mortgage meltdown, bank failures, stock market collapse, and the other cataclysmic events of 2008. Oil prices are fluctuating wildly, demand for alternative energy vehicles is growing while sales of gas-guzzlers are swooning, populations in developing countries are perceiving car ownership to finally be within their grasp, and myriad other forces are at work. If Toyota makes its numbers, does that signify success? What if they don't make the numbers? An even bigger question is: Where did the numbers come from?
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