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September 2009 » Revisiting ‘Monte Carlo’ Simulation...
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Michael Kraten, PhD, CPA
An article in the September 2007 CPA Journal (“Using ‘Monte Carlo’ Simulations to Enhance Planning Recommendations: Rolling the Dice” by Michael Kraten) described a probabilistic statistical approach to personal financial planning. Although some advisors develop alternative future scenarios by modifying prospective return assumptions on an ad hoc (i.e., let's try 6%) basis, that article described the use of statistical back-testing techniques in a randomized Monte Carlo analytical format to generate probabilities (i.e., the odds) that investors will achieve their financial life goals.
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