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Forté Capital's Selected Statistics

Employment Situation

Payrolls increased by 235,000 jobs in February, well above the consensus expectations. Much of the strength was in goods-producing industries, which added 95,000 jobs; construction especially benefited from the milder winter. The services segment lost 26,000 jobs as a result of the weakness in retail. The unemployment rate declined from 4.8% to 4.7%, even as the participation rate increased to 63%.


U.S.

 & World Equity Indexes; 2/28/17; YTD Return
S&P

 500; 2,364; 5.60%
Dow

 Jones Industrials; 20,812; 5.30%
NASDAQ

 Composite; 5,825; 8.20%
Shanghai

 Composite (China); 3,242; 4.40%
S&P

 BSE Sensex (India); 28,743; 8.00%
Nikkei

 Stock Avg (Japan); 19,119; 0.02%
CAC

 40 (France); 4,859; −0.10%
DAX

 (Germany); 11,834; 3.10%
FTSE

 100 (U.K.); 7,263; 1.70%

Selected

 Interest Rates; 2/28/17; 1/31/17
15-Year

 Mortgage; 3.37%; 3.40%
30-Year

 Mortgage; 4.16%; 4.19%
5-Year

 Treasury Bond; 1.89%; 1.90%
10-Year

 Treasury Bond; 2.36%; 2.45%
30-Year

 Treasury Bond; 2.97%; 3.05%

Key

 Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
National
Producer



 Price Index; 0.30%; 0.60%
Consumer

 Price Index; 0.10%; 0.60%
Unemployment

 Rate; 4.70%; 4.80%
ISM

 Manufacturing Index; 57.70; 56.00
ISM

 Services Index; 57.60; 56.50
Change

 in Non-Farm Payroll Emp.; 235,000; 227,000
New

 York State
Consumer

 Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.30%; 0.60%
Unemployment

 Rate; 4.60%; 4.80%
NYS

 Index of Coincident Indicators; 0.50%; −2.70%

Risk of Recession

The probability that the United States economy will fall into a recession in six months fell from 9% in December to 8% in January. The baseline at which a recession is expected to occur is normally 60%. This is the seventh decline in the past eight months and puts the probability of recession at the lowest level since 2015. Rising stock prices, a decline in initial claims, and an increase in housing permits contributed to this trend.


Forté

 Capital's Proprietary Bullish Neutral Bearish
Market

 Risk Barometer 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Market

 Valuation
Monetary

 Environment
Investor

 Psychology
Internal

 Market Technicals
Overall

 Short-Term Outlook 4.34
Overall

 Long-Term Outlook 4.09
As

 of 2/28/17

Equity

 Market Statistics; 2/28/17; 1/31/17
Dow

 Jones Industrials
Dividend

 Yield; 2.42%; 2.49%
Price/Earnings

 (12 Mth Trailing); 20.55; 19.75
Price/Earnings

 (Projected); 17.39; 17.12
S&P

 500 Index
Dividend

 Yield; 2.02%; 2.07%
Price/Earnings

 (12 Mth Trailing); 24.34; 24.34
Price/Earnings

 (Projected); 18.11; 17.38

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital's Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecaptial.com, send a message to info@forte-capital.com, or call 866-586-8100.

 

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