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Forté Capital's Selected Statistics

Employment Situation

Payrolls increased by 235,000 jobs in February, well above the consensus expectations. Much of the strength was in goods-producing industries, which added 95,000 jobs; construction especially benefited from the milder winter. The services segment lost 26,000 jobs as a result of the weakness in retail. The unemployment rate declined from 4.8% to 4.7%, even as the participation rate increased to 63%.


U.S.


 & World Equity Indexes; 2/28/17; YTD Return
S&P


 500; 2,364; 5.60%
Dow


 Jones Industrials; 20,812; 5.30%
NASDAQ


 Composite; 5,825; 8.20%
Shanghai


 Composite (China); 3,242; 4.40%
S&P


 BSE Sensex (India); 28,743; 8.00%
Nikkei


 Stock Avg (Japan); 19,119; 0.02%
CAC


 40 (France); 4,859; −0.10%
DAX


 (Germany); 11,834; 3.10%
FTSE


 100 (U.K.); 7,263; 1.70%

Selected


 Interest Rates; 2/28/17; 1/31/17
15-Year


 Mortgage; 3.37%; 3.40%
30-Year


 Mortgage; 4.16%; 4.19%
5-Year


 Treasury Bond; 1.89%; 1.90%
10-Year


 Treasury Bond; 2.36%; 2.45%
30-Year


 Treasury Bond; 2.97%; 3.05%

Key


 Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
National
Producer





 Price Index; 0.30%; 0.60%
Consumer


 Price Index; 0.10%; 0.60%
Unemployment


 Rate; 4.70%; 4.80%
ISM


 Manufacturing Index; 57.70; 56.00
ISM


 Services Index; 57.60; 56.50
Change


 in Non-Farm Payroll Emp.; 235,000; 227,000
New


 York State
Consumer


 Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.30%; 0.60%
Unemployment


 Rate; 4.60%; 4.80%
NYS


 Index of Coincident Indicators; 0.50%; −2.70%

Risk of Recession

The probability that the United States economy will fall into a recession in six months fell from 9% in December to 8% in January. The baseline at which a recession is expected to occur is normally 60%. This is the seventh decline in the past eight months and puts the probability of recession at the lowest level since 2015. Rising stock prices, a decline in initial claims, and an increase in housing permits contributed to this trend.


Forté


 Capital's Proprietary Bullish Neutral Bearish
Market


 Risk Barometer 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Market


 Valuation
Monetary


 Environment
Investor


 Psychology
Internal


 Market Technicals
Overall


 Short-Term Outlook 4.34
Overall


 Long-Term Outlook 4.09
As


 of 2/28/17

Equity


 Market Statistics; 2/28/17; 1/31/17
Dow


 Jones Industrials
Dividend


 Yield; 2.42%; 2.49%
Price/Earnings


 (12 Mth Trailing); 20.55; 19.75
Price/Earnings


 (Projected); 17.39; 17.12
S&P


 500 Index
Dividend


 Yield; 2.02%; 2.07%
Price/Earnings


 (12 Mth Trailing); 24.34; 24.34
Price/Earnings


 (Projected); 18.11; 17.38

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital's Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecaptial.com, send a message to info@forte-capital.com, or call 866-586-8100.

 
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