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Forté Capital's Selected Statistics

Risk of Recession

The probability that the U.S. economy will fall into recession within six months increased from 17% in April to 20% in May, but still remains low. Weakness in the labor market, a dip in equity prices, and a drop in consumer confidence pushed the probability higher. Based on the economic data, Moody's Analytics believes that the economic expansion in the U.S. is still mid-cycle and has room to run. They generally see the U.S. dipping into recession when the probability reaches 60%.


U.S.

 & World Equity Indexes; 6/30/16; YTD Return
S&P

 500; 2,099; 2.70%
Dow

 Jones Industrials; 17,930; 2.90%
Nasdaq

 Composite; 4,843; −3.30%
Shanghai

 Composite (China); 2,930; −17.20%
S&P

 BSE Sensex (India); 27,000; 3.40%
Nikkei

 Stock Avg (Japan); 15,576; −18.20%
CAC

 40 (France); 4,237; −8.60%
DAX

 (Germany); 9,680; −9.90%
FTSE

 100 (U.K.); 6,504; 4.20%

Selected

 Interest Rates; 6/30/16; 5/31/16
15-Year

 Mortgage; 2.78%; 2.89%
30-Year

 Mortgage; 3.48%; 3.64%
5-Year

 Treasury Bond; 1.01%; 1.38%
10-Year

 Treasury Bond; 1.49%; 1.84%
30-Year

 Treasury Bond; 2.30%; 2.64%

Key

 Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
National
Producer



 Price Index; 0.50%; 0.40%
Consumer

 Price Index; 0.20%; 0.20%
Unemployment

 Rate; 4.90%; 4.70%
ISM

 Manufacturing Index; 53.20; 51.30
ISM

 Services Index; 56.50; 52.90
Change

 in Non-Farm Payroll Emp.; 287,000; 38,000
New

 York State
Consumer

 Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.30%; 0.30%
Unemployment

 Rate; 4.70%; 4.70%
NYS

 Index of Coincident Indicators; 1.30%; 2.70%

RNFIB Small Business Survey

Small business confidence improved in June as the index increased from 93.8 in May to 94.5 in June. Small firms remain pessimistic about the economy over the next six months, but their capital expenditure plans have improved, even though confidence remains historically weak. Many small businesses cite the ability to find qualified workers as their biggest problem. One solution is to raise wages, which an increasing percentage of small firms plan to do; in addition, 16% of small firms say they plan on increasing prices in the next six months.


Forté

 Capital's Proprietary Bullish Neutral Bearish
Market

 Risk Barometer 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Market

 Valuation 4
Monetary

 Environment 8
Investor

 Psychology 5
Internal

 Market Technicals 5
Overall

 Short-Term Outlook 5.10
Overall

 Long-Term Outlook 6.95
As

 of 6/30/16

Equity

 Market Statistics; 6/30/16; 5/31/16
Dow

 Jones Industrials
Dividend

 Yield; 2.68%; 2.68%
Price/Earnings

 Ratio (12 Mth Trailing); 18.41; 18.43
Price

 to Book; 3.04; 3.04
S&P

 500 Index
Earnings

 Yield; 4.70%; 4.70%
Dividend

 Yield; 2.11%; 2.15%
Price/Earnings

 (12 Mth Trailing); 21.28; 21.27
Price/Earnings

 (2016 EPS Est); 18.43; 18.29

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital's Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecaptial.com, send a message to info@forte-capital.com, or call 866-586-8100.

 
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