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The Daily

Market Turmoil Ups Recession Fears (Slightly)

By:
Chris Gaetano
Published Date:
Jan 22, 2016
Caution Floor SignBetween the Chinese slowdown and falling oil prices, the market has not been kind this January, with world stock losses totaling almost $8 trillion so far (and there's still a week left of January!) according to Reuters. Consequently, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch adjusted its predictions of a recession, upping their estimate from 15 percent to 20, and downgrading its growth forecast from 2.5 percent to 2.1. This tracks with Morgan Stanley's guesses too, having said that in a worst case scenario the chance of a recession is 20 percent. Even though estimated probabilities are growing, it remains a stretch to say that we're facing another financial crisis similar to that in 2008, said Reuters. 
 
Also, it might be useful to note that January 2015 was no walk in the park for stocks, either, with the Dow having lost 3.7 percent, the S&P losing 3.1 percent, and Nasdaq losing 2.1 percent, according to a Jan. 30, 2015, CNN article. Further, stocks soared the following month, with the S&P having its best year since 2011.