2009 Election Roundup

The Republican Party in New Jersey and Virginia won handily over their Democratic opponents in last night’s elections while losing a House seat in a surprise upset. In New York City, meanwhile, Mayor Michael Bloomberg retained control of the city in a hard fought election battle, winning by a margin far slimmer than had been anticipated by the media.

New York State’s 23rd District

A special House election in a upstate New York district gained huge symbolic significance over the last few months as it came to be seen by conservatives as a battle for the soul of the Republican Party. The election pitted Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, a moderate Republican who supports abortion and same-sex marriage, against Democrat Bill Owens, a lawyer.

What began as a fairly conventional race for an Obama appointee’s unexpired term became a synecdoche for the GOP’s struggle between the party’s moderate and conservative wings as North Country businessman and NYSSCPA Past Chapter President Doug Hoffman, deciding that Scozzafava was insufficiently conservative, entered the race. Hoffman drew toward him a growing number of conservative Republican superstars as the race continued. Conservative luminaries such as Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh and Fred Thompson savaged Scozzafava, and attacked her conservative credentials.

The combined effort of all this star power eventually led Scozzafava to not only drop out of the race but to urge her supporters to support her former Democratic rival. While early exit polling showed Hoffman slightly ahead, enjoying a five point lead, he was eventually forced to concede the race to Owens, who won 49 percent to Hoffman’s 45 to become the first Democrat to win the district since the mid-19th century.

While some commentators have said that Hoffman’s loss resulted from fatally misreading the extent to which voters were prepared to back the ideologies of his backers, not everyone feels that way: Sarah Palin, in a statement released over Facebook, said that the struggle is not over – simply postponed until 2010.

New York City

Incumbent Mayor Michael Bloomberg, meanwhile, was expected to be a shoe-in for the fifth mayor in the history of New York City to have ever served more than two terms. A Quinnipiac poll estimated him winning over Democrat William Thompson by 12 percent while a Marist College poll pegged his victory at 15 percent. While Bloomberg did indeed win, his margin of victory was much closer than had been previously anticipated, five percent, or 51,000 votes. This has led some to speculate that the mayor’s third term, the product of a barely-passed council action that was widely opposed by the public, could be his most difficult yet.

New Jersey

Republican Chris Christie, a former U.S. Attorney who made his reputation putting corrupt politicians in jail, won the governorship over Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine in a race that had the governor lagging behind his opponent for much of the campaign before, just last month, pulling even with his GOP rival, perhaps aided by the presence of independent candidate Chris Daggett. However, in the end, not even $19 million in ads and several visits from President Obama, who enjoys a 57 percent approval rating in the Garden State, could save his campaign. He conceded the race last night in the East Brunswick, N.J. Hilton, announcing that he will be retiring from politics. Daggett, who had been polling at 20 percent and had the GOP concerned about a possible spoiler effect, came away with only 5 percent of the vote, independents choosing to back Christie according to exit polling.

Virginia

The outcome of Virginia’s gubernatorial election, on the other hand, may have surprised absolutely no one. Republican Robert McDonnell, a former state attorney general from Virginia Beach, was heavily favored to win last night’s race over Democrat Creigh Deeds, a prominent state senator. As predicted, Deeds was steamrolled in Tuesday’s polls, 59 to 41.